It's been more than two months that coronavirus broke into the planet and the consequences are still up and running. While Italy, Spain, Germany, Iran, and France was hit considerably hard by the virus outbreak initially, the USA has now been the latest victim of this epidemic. The number of registered cases grew rapidly in the United States and it has reached the top spot with the highest number of registered cases recording more than 17000 cases on a single day.
India on the other hand, is trying to tackle the situation by imposing 21 days of entire country lockdown. While this is believed to be the need of the hour and is a welcome move by the government, there have been instances where people have come into the streets and crowded places defying the purpose of the lockdown scenario. The pandemic is still on and we will discuss in detail why things can turn out to be worse than what people are expecting.
Let’s focus on the available data of the affected population.
As you can see from the data, the numbers have risen suddenly and we tried to think of how fast it is spreading. So we checked how many days it took to reach some milestone figures as can be seen from the figure. Based on that we created a model, to check how fast the virus is spreading across the world. And the numbers are alarming.
If it continues in this way soon within 1.2 days approximately it will touch 6 lakhs and in less than a day, it will touch 7 lakhs figure across the globe. And the number of days to spread will keep on decreasing but to our fortune at a diminishing rate. But the fact that it will take 1 day to spread across 1 lakh people across the world is itself alarming. The USA has shown signs of this viral spread last evening and the trend is about to continue today also. If this goes on, countries will run out of isolation wards, medical service helps and the result will be a mass infection that can not be controlled.
One other aspect of this prediction is that the countries will need to support their people with proper food, essentials, and medical help. If the outbreak is so massive, then it will be difficult for the nations to cater to its population. Almost all developing and developed nations have announced a percentage of their GDP to utilize to fight against this epidemic but if the reach turns out to be this rapid and massive, implementing or rather spending this amount will become tough, especially in countries like India, where population and income disparity is huge, things can go haywire. This will no doubt have a significant impact on national as well as global economies and that’s something to discuss another day.
And let me tell you this is just the beginning of mass testing in a few countries. The ratio of people tested to the population is not that high for most of the countries. Once it becomes higher, the numbers are bound to change and as per the current prediction stands, numbers will bring in bad omen.
There is still time for people across the world. We need to start taking lockdown, curfew, social distancing more seriously. Because as of now that’s our only weapon. I know we are looking forward to science to save us with its miracle but right now, hope and our personal seriousness to the issue are the best weapons to defend ourselves. Let’s adhere to the guidelines prescribed and try to dampen the growth, flatten the curve. Hopefully, things will change soon.
Science will help those who help themselves. Stay safe. Stay distant.
-Kush...
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